I’m the Sports Editor for a sports news and gambling website. I have many years experience of gambling, sports journalism and study of mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.
You will find innumerable so-called gambling experts willing to hand out information of these systems to’beat the bookie’or to produce a second income from gambling, for a price of course. I won’t do that. I only will give you details about bookmakers, odds and gambling for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.
First thing to mention is that the vast majority of individuals who take part in gambling is likely to be net losers over time https://foxz24.bet/foxz24/. This is the very reason you can find so many bookmakers making so much money through the world.
While bookmakers can sometimes take big hits, for example if your favourite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and they setup markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit within the medium to longterm, if not the short term. That’s, as long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first gauge the possibility of that event occurring. To achieve this they us various statistical models based on data collated over years, sometime decades, about the sport and team/competitor in question. Of course, if sport was 100% predictable, it’d soon lose its appeal, and as the bookies tend to be spot on with their assessments of the possibility of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a fit or contest goes against conventional wisdom and statistical likelihood.
Just look at any sport and you may find an occasion when the underdog triumphs against all the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating the then mighty Liverpool in the FA Cup Final of 1988, for example, or the USA beating the then mighty USSR at ice hockey in the 1980 Olympics are two samples of whenever you would have got handsome odds on the underdog. And might have won a decent wedge.
The big bookmakers spend lots of time and money ensuring they have the proper odds that ensure they consider the perceived possibility of the function, and you can add that extra small bit that offers them the profit margin. So if an event has a possibility of, say, 1/3, the odds that reflect that probability would be 2/1. That’s, two to at least one against that event occurring.
However, a bookie who set these odds would, as time passes, break even (assuming their stats are correct). So instead they’d set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this manner they have built in the margin that ensures, as time passes, they will benefit from people betting on this selection. It’s the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot the occasions when bookmakers have got it wrong? Well, it’s easier said than done, but not even close to impossible.
One way is to have excellent at mathematical modelling and setup a design that takes into account as many of the variables that affect the results of an event as possible. The issue with this particular tactic is that however complex the model, and however all-encompassing this indicates, it cannot take into account the minutiae of variables associated with individual human states of mind. Whether a player manages to hole a major-winning five foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews it is as much down for their concentration regarding weather or day of the week. Also, the maths may start getting pretty darn complicated.
Alternatively you’ll find yourself a sporting niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, generally found to be football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So attempting to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United v Chelsea match is likely to be tough. Until you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, it is very possible the bookmaker setting the odds can have more details than you.
However, if you’re betting on non-league football, or badminton, or crown green bowls, it is possible, through work reading a lot of stats, and general information gathering, you can begin to achieve an advantage over bookies (if they even set odds for such things, which many do).
And what can you do when you have an advantage in information terms? You follow the value.
Value betting is where you back a selection at odds which can be higher than the specific possibility of an event occurring. So for example, if you gauge the possibility of a particular non-league football team (Grimsby Town, say) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33%, and you find a bookmaker who has set the odds of 3/1, you’ve a price bet on your hands. The reason being, odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built in by the bookie) suggest a possibility of 1/4 or 25%. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has underrated Grimsby’s chances, so you’ve effectively built in an 8% margin for yourself.
Of course Grimsby (as is the case) might fluff their lines and don’t win the match, and hence you could lose the bet. But when you continue steadily to search for and bet on value bets, as time passes you can make a profit. If you don’t, as time passes, you’ll lose. Simple.